Cycles Archive

  • The majority of people do not challenge ideas. Instead, they cling to a belief no matter what evidence you present. You cannot change the mind of someone who is incapable of escaping the cage they have built around their own mind where they feel comfortable. They will believe only what they want to believe.

    Does Randomness Even Exist?

    The majority of people do not challenge ideas. Instead, they cling to a belief no matter what evidence you present. You cannot change the mind of someone who is incapable of escaping the cage they have built around their own mind where they feel comfortable. They will believe only what they want to believe.

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  • Be it nature or politics, everything dies in a Phase Transition. The fall of communism in 1989 was abrupt and swept from China to Russia within a matter of months. Western political systems will simply collapse by this same process. Everything dies in an explosive Phase Transition.

    Phase Transitions in Nature – An Exploding Star

    Be it nature or politics, everything dies in a Phase Transition. The fall of communism in 1989 was abrupt and swept from China to Russia within a matter of months. Western political systems will simply collapse by this same process. Everything dies in an explosive Phase Transition.

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  • The market is the only forecaster whom is always correct. The fools who claim they are right and the market is wrong because someone manipulated it against them are just delusional fools. Only humans makes mistakes; not the markets. The key is to read what the markets are telling us.

    Forecasting That You Can Do As Well

    The market is the only forecaster whom is always correct. The fools who claim they are right and the market is wrong because someone manipulated it against them are just delusional fools. Only humans makes mistakes; not the markets. The key is to read what the markets are telling us.

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  • I have warned that each terrorist group seems to act in their own cyclical manner, and the cycle that evolves is a fingerprint to each group. Now, it turns out that it has been confirmed that all three of the bombers in Brussels had links to the cell in Paris.

    All Three Terrorists in Brussels Had Links to Paris – Is ISIS Waging War on Europe?

    I have warned that each terrorist group seems to act in their own cyclical manner, and the cycle that evolves is a fingerprint to each group. Now, it turns out that it has been confirmed that all three of the bombers in Brussels had links to the cell in Paris.

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  • It appears terrorist groups are acting in a cyclical manner like everyone and everything else. So in part, you can most likely forecast when something will happen. However, I do not think it would be possible to forecast where since that would require a historical data series to look for repetitive patterns.

    Is There a Frequency to Terrorism?

    It appears terrorist groups are acting in a cyclical manner like everyone and everything else. So in part, you can most likely forecast when something will happen. However, I do not think it would be possible to forecast where since that would require a historical data series to look for repetitive patterns.

    Continue Reading...

  • Let’s face the facts. The Economic Confidence Model works with such precision it is often mind-numbing. I suppose it makes sense that we are influenced collectively to respond with a cyclical rhythm. It appears the same is reflected in terrorist activity.

    Are Terrorist Attacks Following the 8.6-Year Frequency?

    Let’s face the facts. The Economic Confidence Model works with such precision it is often mind-numbing. I suppose it makes sense that we are influenced collectively to respond with a cyclical rhythm. It appears the same is reflected in terrorist activity.

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  • No. Systems fail because of a lack of historical data testing. For example, Black-Scholes failed and created the Long-Term Capital Management crisis in 1998 because the data used for developing the model was only back to 1971.

    Why Models Fails – Increased Use or Faulty Design?

    No. Systems fail because of a lack of historical data testing. For example, Black-Scholes failed and created the Long-Term Capital Management crisis in 1998 because the data used for developing the model was only back to 1971.

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  • Markets oscillate back and forth. I understand that to the people just coming to this blog that this may look like the “Matrix” or having to learn a new language. But keep in mind that it may appear to be difficult at first, but like speaking a different language, somehow it just flows out when you are there.

    Feel the Beat & Survive

    Markets oscillate back and forth. I understand that to the people just coming to this blog that this may look like the “Matrix” or having to learn a new language. But keep in mind that it may appear to be difficult at first, but like speaking a different language, somehow it just flows out when you are there.

    Continue Reading...

  • Everything is connected in nature including how our economy functions. A reader who grasped my piece on how everything is interconnected in markets sent this in. He made the connection with his non-linear observation. Something small can have profound impacts; the essence of chaos theory.

    Free Markets are Nature’s Design

    Everything is connected in nature including how our economy functions. A reader who grasped my piece on how everything is interconnected in markets sent this in. He made the connection with his non-linear observation. Something small can have profound impacts; the essence of chaos theory.

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  • The question becomes, just how long can we try to climb out of this mess before it consumes the entire rope? It does appear that the greatest period of turmoil will be 2017 moving into 2020. Whatever can go wrong – will go wrong. We have everything culminating from a Sovereign Debt Crisis to the War Cycle intermixed with political destabilization.

    The Game is Over – Market Perspective

    The question becomes, just how long can we try to climb out of this mess before it consumes the entire rope? It does appear that the greatest period of turmoil will be 2017 moving into 2020. Whatever can go wrong – will go wrong. We have everything culminating from a Sovereign Debt Crisis to the War Cycle intermixed with political destabilization.

    Continue Reading...