market timing Archive

  • The smart investor can’t sit around with his finger up his nose waiting for them to come back. A 50% loss means it has to gain 100% to get back to even. If Mr. Smart Investor had taken a small 10% hit he would be money ahead. He could even consider the difference between the 50% loss and the 10% loss as a reverse profit. One loss he didn’t have to take. The money stayed in his portfolio.

    How Stop Loss Orders Make Money

    The smart investor can’t sit around with his finger up his nose waiting for them to come back. A 50% loss means it has to gain 100% to get back to even. If Mr. Smart Investor had taken a small 10% hit he would be money ahead. He could even consider the difference between the 50% loss and the 10% loss as a reverse profit. One loss he didn’t have to take. The money stayed in his portfolio.

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  • Many readers have told me that this is one of the most difficult things to do. Why? Very simply, because it is an admission of having been wrong especially if that sell stop triggers a loss as opposed to locking in a gain. Get over it! When you invest, you will have losses and admitting that you were wrong from time to time will not kill your portfolio. What will kill it is letting small losses turn into large ones.

    Never Too Big To Admit Mistakes

    Many readers have told me that this is one of the most difficult things to do. Why? Very simply, because it is an admission of having been wrong especially if that sell stop triggers a loss as opposed to locking in a gain. Get over it! When you invest, you will have losses and admitting that you were wrong from time to time will not kill your portfolio. What will kill it is letting small losses turn into large ones.

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  • Because the only protection against a bear market is to be in cash on the sidelines or actually invested in bear market funds. And don’t let any of these index proponents tell you any different—when the markets head south, index funds with will join the crowd.

    Avoiding Tragedies

    Because the only protection against a bear market is to be in cash on the sidelines or actually invested in bear market funds. And don’t let any of these index proponents tell you any different—when the markets head south, index funds with will join the crowd.

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  • Why? It's easy money! Accountants and tax professionals have a great business base. They are in a unique position of trust, because of the information their clients disclose to them. Whether they are employed by a company or they maintain an individual practice, there is probably no other person (other than your spouse) who knows as many intimate details of your financial life as your accountant/tax preparer. To abuse this trust for personal gain-no matter how noble the motive may appear-is a total conflict of interest and a huge betrayal.

    How (NOT) to Buy Mutual Funds

    Why? It's easy money! Accountants and tax professionals have a great business base. They are in a unique position of trust, because of the information their clients disclose to them. Whether they are employed by a company or they maintain an individual practice, there is probably no other person (other than your spouse) who knows as many intimate details of your financial life as your accountant/tax preparer. To abuse this trust for personal gain-no matter how noble the motive may appear-is a total conflict of interest and a huge betrayal.

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  • Any fool can buy. It is the smart investor that knows when to sell. Bear markets are usually 3 times faster going down than bull markets going up. Being out of the market in cash is a position. No broker will ever say that. A slow but reliable method for exiting stock market positions is called the DEATH CROSS. When that signal is shown it means the market is headed lower. There will be times when using this strategy the client will lose money, but over the long run it has an excellent profit record. He will always be out during 30, 40, 50% declines.

    The Death Cross

    Any fool can buy. It is the smart investor that knows when to sell. Bear markets are usually 3 times faster going down than bull markets going up. Being out of the market in cash is a position. No broker will ever say that. A slow but reliable method for exiting stock market positions is called the DEATH CROSS. When that signal is shown it means the market is headed lower. There will be times when using this strategy the client will lose money, but over the long run it has an excellent profit record. He will always be out during 30, 40, 50% declines.

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  • Don't believe anything anyone tells you about the market, not even me. Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. "Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months." Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust anyone who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.

    Forecasting the Market

    Don't believe anything anyone tells you about the market, not even me. Every day I see in the financial section of newspapers how to forecast what the market will do in 6 months, 12 months, several years. "Ten stocks that will double in the next 6 months." Right! I have trouble trying to forecast what it will do tomorrow. Do not trust anyone who claims he knows what the future will be for the market.

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  • For my thinking readers it is time to examine world cultures. Every country has its culture built on the same mindless system as the monkeys. The cry is, “We have always done it that way”. And they are so imbued with the culture, system, methods, whatever, that it is almost impossible to change unless there is some type of catastrophe – natural or man made.

    Five Monkeys as a Financial Lesson

    For my thinking readers it is time to examine world cultures. Every country has its culture built on the same mindless system as the monkeys. The cry is, “We have always done it that way”. And they are so imbued with the culture, system, methods, whatever, that it is almost impossible to change unless there is some type of catastrophe – natural or man made.

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  • But as it says on the bottom of every prospectus, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And in these days of cockeyed cooked books, past performance is barely a guarantee of past results! So you need to decide not only what to buy, but you have to be darn sure you know when to sell it when future results of an investment don't match your expectations.

    The Demise of Buy and Hold

    But as it says on the bottom of every prospectus, past performance is no guarantee of future results. And in these days of cockeyed cooked books, past performance is barely a guarantee of past results! So you need to decide not only what to buy, but you have to be darn sure you know when to sell it when future results of an investment don't match your expectations.

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  • I have received countless e-mails and phone calls from individuals who have been led astray by brokers, financial planners and others using buy-and-hold and dollar cost averaging. Stories abound of retirees having to go back to work just because someone told them that "the market can't go any lower" or "let's dollar cost average."

    Buy and Hold: How to Perpetuate Your Investment Losses

    I have received countless e-mails and phone calls from individuals who have been led astray by brokers, financial planners and others using buy-and-hold and dollar cost averaging. Stories abound of retirees having to go back to work just because someone told them that "the market can't go any lower" or "let's dollar cost average."

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  • In the initial stages of a bull market, it's the fear of the unknown that keep the masses out of an asset class. They think to themselves, "Yes. I can see it's cheap.  I can see the fundamentals stack up.  But what if, blah blah blah.  Why is no one buying it?  There must be something wrong with it.  Best to steer clear."

    Investor Psychology

    In the initial stages of a bull market, it's the fear of the unknown that keep the masses out of an asset class. They think to themselves, "Yes. I can see it's cheap. I can see the fundamentals stack up. But what if, blah blah blah. Why is no one buying it? There must be something wrong with it. Best to steer clear."

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